Making Decisions
Decision points are the heart of crisis simulations, where you apply crisis management principles to realistic scenarios.Understanding Decision Points
What Makes a Good Decision?
In crisis simulations, decisions are evaluated on:Effectiveness
Does it address the problem?
Stakeholder Impact
How does it affect all parties?
Risk Management
Balance of risk vs reward
Resource Efficiency
Appropriate use of assets
Timeliness
Made quickly enough?
Communication
Proper stakeholder notification
Decision-Making Framework
OODA Loop
Observe → Orient → Decide → Act1
Observe
Gather information about the current situation
2
Orient
Analyze what the information means in context
3
Decide
Choose the best course of action
4
Act
Commit to your decision and see the outcome
DECIDE Model
A comprehensive crisis decision framework:- Define the problem
- Establish criteria for solutions
- Consider alternatives
- Identify the best alternative
- Develop and implement action plan
- Evaluate and monitor results
Decision Types
- Strategic
- Tactical
- Communication
- Resource
High-Level Direction
- Overall crisis response strategy
- Resource allocation priorities
- Long-term vs short-term trade-offs
- Organizational positioning
Common Decision Scenarios
Time-Pressured Decisions
Challenge: Must decide quickly with incomplete information Strategy:Use 80/20 rule - good enough beats perfect too late
Apply standard protocols when available
Trust training and instinct
Accept that some uncertainty is unavoidable
Information-Poor Decisions
Challenge: Critical information is missing Strategy:Identify what you know vs what you don’t
Make reasonable assumptions, state them clearly
Choose option robust to multiple scenarios
Plan to adjust as more info emerges
High-Stakes Decisions
Challenge: Significant consequences either way Strategy:Systematically evaluate each option
Consider worst-case scenarios
Consult available resources/procedures
Balance risk aversion with decisive action
Ethical Dilemmas
Challenge: Options involve competing values Strategy:Identify the ethical principles in conflict
Consider stakeholder perspectives
Apply organizational values
Document reasoning for transparency
Decision-Making Best Practices
Read All Options Before Choosing
Read All Options Before Choosing
Don’t select the first reasonable option. Review all choices to ensure you’re picking the best, not just an acceptable one.
Consider Second and Third-Order Effects
Consider Second and Third-Order Effects
Think beyond immediate outcomes. What happens next? And after that?
Identify Stakeholders
Identify Stakeholders
Who’s affected? Employees, customers, regulators, public, shareholders?
Use Available Resources
Use Available Resources
Check if emergency plans, procedures, or data can inform your decision.
Balance Speed and Quality
Balance Speed and Quality
Some decisions need immediate action; others benefit from deliberation. Know which is which.
Document Your Reasoning
Document Your Reasoning
Note why you chose as you did. Helps with learning and real-world accountability.
Commit Fully
Commit Fully
Once decided, implement decisively. Hesitant execution undermines good decisions.
Team Decision-Making
Collaborative Decisions
In group simulations, some decisions require team input:1
Share Information
Each team member contributes relevant knowledge
2
Discuss Options
Debate pros/cons of choices
3
Build Consensus
Try to align on best option
4
Decide
Vote, reach consensus, or leader decides based on input
5
Support Decision
Once made, team supports it even if it wasn’t their preference
Avoiding Groupthink
Countermeasures:Encourage devil’s advocate role
Seek diverse perspectives
Question assumptions
Consider external viewpoints
Learning from Decisions
After Each Decision
- Read Feedback
- Compare to Alternatives
- Extract the Principle
- Apply Going Forward
Understand the Outcome
- What happened because of your choice?
- Why did it score as it did?
- What were the consequences?
Decision Pitfalls to Avoid
Analysis Paralysis
Pitfall: Overthinking to the point of inactionSolution: Set decision deadlines, use “good enough” standard
Confirmation Bias
Pitfall: Only seeing information that supports your preferred optionSolution: Actively seek disconfirming evidence
Recency Bias
Pitfall: Overweighting the most recent informationSolution: Review all available information, not just latest
Anchoring
Pitfall: Fixating on initial informationSolution: Reassess as new data emerges
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Pitfall: Continuing bad approach because of past investmentSolution: Evaluate based on future, not past
Overconfidence
Pitfall: Too certain despite limited informationSolution: Acknowledge uncertainty, plan contingencies